Strange Bedfellows

Discussions to form coalitions in the provincial governments between the winners and losers are almost over. As no party won the majority they need each other in order to effectively run the provinces and watching how this plays out is somewhat fascinating.

Almost immediately after the first indications hinted at a Maliki victory the secular ex-Ba'athist Allawi who chose to stay in opposition because he couldn't stand UIA policies on many issues, including federalism, was seen cosying up with the Islamist Hakim who is still dreaming of an autonomous oil-rich south. The Sadrists, still bearing the scars from Maliki's relentless onslaught against the Mehdi Army in the Spring of 2008, have decided to be on Maliki's team.

It is precisely this weird dynamic nature of Iraqi politics, I think, that makes Iraq such an interesting subject for foreign scholars. For some Iraqis its just downright funny. The Iraqi Army, on direct orders from its Commander-in-Chief, spent three months last year fighting, and more importantly defeating, the "outlaws" (a fancy name Maliki decided to give the Sadrist Mehdi Army) in Basra, Baghdad and Amara but now the Sadrists are willing to form coalitions in the south just for the sake of seeing Hakim on the losing side. Allawi who was given harsh treatment, to put gently, by Hakim's followers has suddenly decided it would be a good thing to work with Hakim.

Perhaps these rounds of negotiations show that rivalry between the Sadrists and Hakims has previously been underestimated. It is true that the Mehdi Army has clashed with the Badr Brigade on previous occasions, most spectacularly in Kerbala when the Sadrists tried to take over the shrines, but these clashes could be seen as petty when compared to the battle, or rather war, that raged between Maliki and Sadr's Mehdi Army.

When the Mehdi Army burnt down the offices of Badr and Hakim across Iraq the Badr gunmen inside the buildings were given strict orders to evacuate and offer no resistance. The rivalry between Sadr and Hakim must now be so bitter that Sadr prefers to join Maliki, the man who destroyed the Mehdi Army, and ignore Hakim, the man who has shown restraint and caution towards the Mehdi Army.

Although the Sadrists were beaten by Hakim in some of the southern provinces they will be able to effectively marginalise SIIC once they complete the deal with Maliki. It will be back to the drawing board for Hakim and rumours are already spreading about plans to undercut the local provinces with social welfare programmes. Also the $2.4 billion allocated to the provincial authorities will need to be cleared through the Finance Ministry, which is controlled by SIIC.

Maliki and Sadr will need to be careful to make sure they do not step on SIIC's toes because no one knows what will happen if they are pushed into a corner. There is fresh talk of assassinations and newly discovered "Nejadiyat" (named after the Iranian President) IED's in Najaf and the last thing anyone, not least Maliki himself, needs is bloodshed. Although that is highly unlikely to be the work of the high ranking officials in SIIC the fear is from rogue elements in the party and disgruntled players who may not necessarily take their orders from Baghdad.