Bush takes decisive action on Iraq. Bush invades Iraq and topples Saddam. Bush hunts down Ba'athist criminals and hands them over to Iraqi officials. New constitution is written and ratified. Democratic elections take place with support of the US. For the first time in around half a century elected officials are actually in power in Iraq. Ba'athists criminals are tried and sentenced. Saddam is executed for crimes against humanity. The end of a dark chapter in Iraqi history. Bush signs off Iraq to Maliki. Bush promises to withdraw US troops from Iraq. SOFA negotiations begin. Iraq and US come to terms. Agreement is signed...
and Obama just waltzes in like a princess and claims the credit?
News
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
Hypothesis
If the previous provincial elections are anything to go by, the next general election is going to be very interesting. Of course Maliki swept the provinces last time round but his main advantage was that his opponents were divided, scattered and running against each other. This was a luxury he is not going to have in January.
A friend of mine took a hypothetical look at how the results would look like based on the number of seats the political parties won in the provincial elections. He then grouped the parties together according to their current alliances and the result is somewhat fascinating.
The Iraqi National Alliance consists mainly of SIIC, Sadr, Ja'fari, and Fadheela. The big guns on the State of Law Coalition are the Da'wa Party, Da'wa - Iraq Organisation and the Independent bloc.
Maliki's coalition equals 'the rest'. In my opinion this is a testament to Maliki's strength and power in Iraq but of course the general election is not exactly going to be like the provincial elections.
One important note to make is that during the provincial elections the choice, in many cities, was between the Shia Maliki, the Shia Hakim or the Shia Sadr. In the general election there is going to be much more at stake. Cue the sectarian drum rolls please. On pen and paper the Iraqi National Alliance is much more sectarian than Maliki's coalition and this could, no actually it will, give them the upper hand with the sectarian voters.
It is going to be virtually impossible for either party to win a majority in parliament (138 seats) so as ever the post-election alliances are going to be closely monitored and the Kurds and Sunnis will become the kingmakers. Due to their history the Kurds are going to be more inclined to join Hakim but the Sunnis would prefer Maliki who is fielding a larger number of Sunnis in his coalition.
The Sunnis, Kurds and Christians on board with Maliki also give him more credibility in terms of having a 'real' Iraqi alliance. Head to head, there could be a difference of just a dozen seats between them.
A friend of mine took a hypothetical look at how the results would look like based on the number of seats the political parties won in the provincial elections. He then grouped the parties together according to their current alliances and the result is somewhat fascinating.
The Iraqi National Alliance consists mainly of SIIC, Sadr, Ja'fari, and Fadheela. The big guns on the State of Law Coalition are the Da'wa Party, Da'wa - Iraq Organisation and the Independent bloc.
Maliki's coalition equals 'the rest'. In my opinion this is a testament to Maliki's strength and power in Iraq but of course the general election is not exactly going to be like the provincial elections.One important note to make is that during the provincial elections the choice, in many cities, was between the Shia Maliki, the Shia Hakim or the Shia Sadr. In the general election there is going to be much more at stake. Cue the sectarian drum rolls please. On pen and paper the Iraqi National Alliance is much more sectarian than Maliki's coalition and this could, no actually it will, give them the upper hand with the sectarian voters.
It is going to be virtually impossible for either party to win a majority in parliament (138 seats) so as ever the post-election alliances are going to be closely monitored and the Kurds and Sunnis will become the kingmakers. Due to their history the Kurds are going to be more inclined to join Hakim but the Sunnis would prefer Maliki who is fielding a larger number of Sunnis in his coalition.
The Sunnis, Kurds and Christians on board with Maliki also give him more credibility in terms of having a 'real' Iraqi alliance. Head to head, there could be a difference of just a dozen seats between them.
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