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Monday, May 24, 2010

The 'Silent' Coup in Najaf

It all began with a plea to Sistani from a group of well known and respected scholars. They argued that there needs to be congregational prayers held at the shrine of Imam Ali and that it was a shame no one has been leading the prayers. Sistani listened carefully took it on himself to make sure a short-list of men was carefully studied in order to pick a single scholar to lead the prayers. Eventually they decided on Mohammed Taqi al-Hakim, the younger brother of the other Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Saeed al-Hakim.

On thursday last week he led the prayers at the shrine courtyard which was packed and people had to line up on the streets to pray. The Sadrists saw this and were incensed. A scholar from a rival 'clan' was attracting too much attention on their doorstep (Moqtada's office is only several yards away from the door of the shrine) and they were not going to stay quiet.

They let it go the first day but the next day when the elderly Mohammed Taqi al-Hakim approached the shrine with his modest security detail (I have bumped into him several times in Najaf and I see one, and sometimes two, armed men following several paces behind him) the Sadrists in typical mob fashion blocked his access to the shrine and ordered him to go away.

Next a message was sent to the office of Sistani, which is also very close to the shrine. The words left no one in doubt of just how angry the Sadrists were. "If he comes again we will shed blood [that will flood] up to the knees".

Mohammed Ridha al-Sistani, the Grand Ayatollah's son, and most probably on the orders of Sistani himself, told Mohammed Taqi al-Hakim to stop praying at the shrine to avert a potential catastrophe.

The Sadrist mob effectively vetoed the highest office in the Shia clerical heirachy and forced Sistani to cave in under their pressure. Many moderate scholars in Najaf are furious that Sistani has appeased the Sadrists in such an open way and rightly argue the Sadrists will just get bolder and bolder until they claim the entire city when it will be too late to do anything about it.

Moqtada has just slapped the marja'iya in Najaf and from what it seems, the marja'iya has turned the other cheek.

Friday, May 07, 2010

Unholy Alliance

Iraqi politicians who use Facebook and Twitter to interact with people are a breath of fresh air that Iraq needs more and more of. I follow several Iraqi politicians on these social networking sites but by far the most interactive is Dr Haider al-Abadi. He is Maliki's advisor, official spokesmen for the Da'wa Party and also the current Chairman of the Economic Committee in Parliament. He not only regularly updates his status but also comments on people's complaints and answers their questions. A rare politician indeed.

One of his recent status' was:

'Our slogans are absolutely not racist or sectarian and I acknowledge there are racist and sectarian people who have tried to drag Iraq into a civil war and who continue to try but Maliki has confronted them with neutrality and with a nationalist stance and pursued the outlaws and terrorists as criminals regardless of their sect. The criminals have no religion and our election manifesto has always been clear about the need to protect the minorities and defend them.'

This struck me immediately on a number of levels. He is obviously making references to the Mehdi Army who clashed with the Iraqi Security Forces and he is actually making a very valid point. The fact that Maliki fought these people means you can level all sorts of allegations against him, but never that he is sectarian. But then I was confused because this statement from Abadi comes on the same day as the announcement that the INA and SLA have united as a single political bloc which means they are only a handful of seats away from forming a majority in Parliament. It means the Sadr Movement, whose military wing Abadi is referring to as criminals, has joined Maliki's bloc. So I asked him a question and below is the public conversation we had on Facebook.

In a nutshell he sees the Ba'athists as the greatest danger to Iraq and I see the Shia criminals as the greatest danger to Iraq. A friend asked me if I could imagine having this conversation 10 years ago with one of Saddam's officials and that I would probably be dead by the second question. I don't think I would even have lasted that long but this newly found freedom is one of the fruits of democracy millions of Iraqis are enjoying with passion.

Me: Dr please explain one thing for me. Maliki wants a strong central government, Hakim wants a weak central government and Moqtada still wants to kill the occupiers. The only thing that you have in common with each other is your Shia background. So how is this going to work?

Abadi: Indeed there are points of dis-agreement but there are many other points of agreement e.g. keeping Baathists out, fighting terrorists, providing services to people, improving the standard of living, supporting victims of saddam, rebuilding cities and villages destroyed by Saddam.

Me: Dr no one is going to say they don't want to improve standards of living and services or fight terrorism, the problem is this coalition does not agree on the very basics of government. Moqtada still wants to fight the occupiers and Hakim is still dreaming of his southern state. I can't understand how this coalition is going to agree on legislation in parliament when everyone wants something else and they can't even agree on a PM. There is no united political ideology but simply a united sectarian background. Proof of this is the choice of Ayatollah Sistani as the final arbiter.

In five years aside from an improvement in security we have not really moved forward. It's back to 'muhasasa', back to 2005 and back to putting personal interests ahead of the country. I just hope innocent Iraqi people do not continue to die because they are ultimately always going to the victims. I wish you could succeed but I don't think that is going to happen.

Abadi: Its never going to be easy. However Hakim and majlis stopped calling for southern federartion since they lost local election last year and for Sadris the occupation is going to end in next year and all agree we are going in the right direction on this. We are trying hard to place the interests of the country above those of the parties or persons. However this is a continous struggle since Allah created man.

Me: I don't doubt for a moment there are many who are trying to move the country forward but what I am worried about is the criminals in Iraq who have been given political power and legitimacy. Whatever happens next, I pray the Da'wa Party does not hand over power to these criminals who we all know have Iraqi blood on their hands. I would rather see the Ba'athists in power because at least they don't represent the madhab of Ahul Bayt.

Abadi: Thats inherent part of democracy where people choose and it depends on awareness of people.

Me: That's true of course Dr there is no debate on that count, but in a real democracy murderers are sent to prison or executed, regardless of patronage. Iraq is still at least 20 years behind in that sense. The murderers of your colleague Ammar al-Saffar are now aspiring to control a security ministry, the murderers of my father enjoy protection in their clerical robes, and more importantly the murderers of thousands of innocent Iraqis enjoy popular support. The Ba'athists are not the only criminals in our ranks, nor are they the only danger to Iraq.

Abadi: I agree but there are theives and criminals in democratic countries who are free either due to lack of evidence or because they are able to manipulate the justice system. Its the same problem and we should always thrive to achieve justice as far as possible, however real justice can only be accoplished in the court of Almighty God.

Me: Dr, again I agree, but the problem is not just with a justice system that allows criminals to get away with murder and even with setting up extrajudicial Sharia courtrooms that execute innocent men and women. The problem is also with politicians and security officials who refuse to act and stay silent. I believe in the court of Allah but I also believe Iraq deserves to have fairness, equality and law here on Earth. No distinction should be made between the son of labourer or the son of an Ayatollah, a layman in a dishdasha or a Sayyid with a turban. Murder is murder. A crime is a crime. Those with no power can only rely on Allah.

"I will never rest until I achieve victory and take revenge from the enemies of this nation and humanity, or I will come to you stained in my own blood and meet Allah, my grandfather the Prophet and the Imams and complain to them about what has been done to us" - Abdul Majid al-Khoei

Abadi: Very moving words by your dad rahimahu-allah and I trust that justice from his killers will be shown in this life and the life after. I still remeber that day very well, we were bordering Iraq and about to enter after the fall of saddam. The news of the murder of your dad came as a shock to us and I wrote a statement and delivered it to news media at the time and still have it on my pc.

Me: Thank you, I just hope the deaths of hundreds of thousands of other Iraqis will not be in vain. Real justice can never be shown in this life so long as there are politicians who put their careers ahead of justice, especially those in the INA. But God works in mysterious ways. The mighty Saddam himself was hanged, so there will be a time for everyone, even Moqtada. I cannot interact with the INA officials the way I do with you, so if you could forward them this article I would greatly appreciate it. http://kitabat.com/i67733.htm

Abadi: Powerful article, would you please forward the original english article, thanks.

Me: Thank you, this is the original.

http://eyeraki.blogspot.com/2010/02/machiavellian-snake.html

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Victory for Democracy!

11.5 million Iraqis turn out to vote, a few million votes get sidelined, the other lesser groups unite purely on sectarian grounds, and then they decide to give decision making power to the clergy in Najaf.

I hope the clerics in Najaf do the right thing and tell these squabbling politicians to get their act together and shoulder responsibility. After all, they are the elected officials. If the next government of Iraq fails because of decisions taken in the offices of the clerics in Najaf they would enjoy the same level of respect their counterparts have in Tehran. This has disaster written all over it.

The senior clerics in Najaf adhere to their own version of 'collective responsibility' similar to that practiced in Westminster-style governments. They may disagree in private and debate each other but when the senior cleric makes a decision, the others will defend it publicly. If Sistani does reject this offer, it is wonderful news because the other three Grand Ayatollah's will refuse to be dragged into this game of cat and mouse with the Iraqi politicians. Fingers crossed he will.

Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Who Am I?

I keep telling the world I am not going through an identity crisis, but the world doesn't want to listen.

The Arabs say I am Persian.

The Persians say I am Azeri.

The Azeris say I am Iraqi.

The Iraqis say I am British.

The British say I am 'Other Asian'.

The Asians say I am European.

The Europeans say I am Muslim.

The Muslims say I am Shia.

The Shia say I am Secular.

Sunday, May 02, 2010

Sadr Interview

I just watched the 50 minute interview with Moqtada al-Sadr last month on Al-Jazeera and it has drawn my attention to some issues.

Firstly, both Ghassan bin Jidu (the interviewer) and Sadr are clearly misleading the Arab world with their talk of the great Sadr 'victory' that has shocked and surprised many monitoring Iraq's elections. Nibras explains why here.

At 20:32 Moqtada makes an astonishing admission. Bin Jidu asks him about the hostility and gulf that exists between him and Maliki and part of the reply is "
I told the former Prime Minister... Dr Ibrahim al-Ja'afari, I told him you can win the Sadr Movement with just a little [in return] and they will be under your banner - and it was."

I had always suspected Ibrahim al-Ja'fari shook hands with the devil when he managed to get the votes of the Sadr Movement to defeat his challenger Abdul Mehdi in the contest for the Prime Ministerial seat in 2005 but this is the first time I have heard Moqtada explicitly admit that his movement was '
under the banner' of Ibrahim al-Jafari. Only time will tell what exactly it was Ja'fari offered Moqtada in return for his friendship. What ever the agreement was, clearly it was something that Maliki did not want to honour.

The other interesting admission was with regards to US forces in Iraq and the SOFA. In the beginning of the interview Moqtada dispels any doubts people had with regards to whether or not he has officially laid down his arms as he makes it clear he is still involved in armed resistance against the Americans. The worrying point however is that he may not just be talking about the military. At 43:37 he declares "we do not believe Iraq has been liberated by the agreement [SOFA], we believe Iraq will be liberated when the last soldier leaves Iraqi soil... and military bases, not just the soldiers... soldiers, and companies, and intelligence agencies, if they all leave Iraq will be liberated, until then Iraq lacks sovereignty and it lacks independence"

I can only hope that when he mentions 'companies' he is referring to security companies and not commercial companies. If the latter then we are never going to get real peace in Iraq so long as he lives. If he wants every American company to be banned from doing business in Iraq that means he will always have an excuse to play the 'resistance' card. I hope I am being paranoid, because if I am right McDonalds could trigger a war in Iraq.